CHINA TOPIX

12/22/2024 08:33:56 am

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China’s Strategic Goals Make War with the US Almost Inevitable

Aching for action

(Photo : PLAN) The PLAN Sovremenny-class destroyer Taizhou launches an anti-ship missile.

China continues the rapid modernization of its People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), hoping its quantitative advantage will be enough to overcome the U.S. Navy's superior quality in a coming war made almost inevitable by China's unwavering strategic goals.

That fundamental goal, simply put, is to replace the United States as Asia's premier military power. Once that's achieved, China can also rightfully lay claim to becoming the world's only true superpower. Russia is its ally and both are today trying to form a military alliance to enfeeble the United States and fracture NATO.

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The onus on attaining that grand goal rests with the PLAN, which historically has always played the bridesmaid to the more powerful and politically better connected People's Liberation Army Ground Force (PLAGF).

President Xi Jinping's continuing "anti-corruption" campaign, however, has mostly targeted generals of the PLAGF. Observers note Xi is intentionally building up the PLAN as a counterweight to the PLAGF, which remains loyal to his political opponents led by former presidents Xiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

The mission of the PLAN, apart from ensuring Xi's survival as president, is to continue facing down the Americans and winning the short but brutal war in the South China Sea it's gearing-up but still unprepared for.

That war seems all but inevitable given the PLAN's goals western military analysts believe is a multi-faceted combination of apparently difficult challenges given the PLAN's present state. Hence, the apparent haste in modernizing the PLAN.

Chief among these goals is replacing the U.S as the dominant military power in the Western Pacific and making China a major world power.

This goal will be achieved by a series of steps short of war that include aggressively asserting China's territorial claims in the South China Sea and exercising more control over this sea despite the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague declaring illegal China's claim to own most of this sea.

China will also strive to enforce its claim to have a legal right to regulate foreign military activities in its 200-mile maritime exclusive economic zone, despite the PCA ruling.

China's island building will continue but will not include the Scarborough Shoal both the U.S. and the Philippines has said is a red line that will trigger a war.

China's "fortress strategy" means the PLAN will only give battle within range of its anti-ship missiles (ASMs) that will soon be deployed to the islands it's seized from other countries, especially the Philippines. The PLAN thinks this combination of land based ASMs and those aboard its warships will be enough to battle the U.S. Navy to a bloody draw.

The PLAN will not seek to face the U.S. Navy in the open ocean far away from its land based missile shield. It is neither designed for or is equipped to fight independently of its land based missiles. If it were, the PLAN would have a number of aircraft carriers and the modern aircraft to fly from it.

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