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12/22/2024 03:46:52 pm

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Scientists Aim to Forecast Eruptions by Better Detecting Volcanic Carbon Emissions

Prediction

(Photo : Trial by Fire 2016) Scientists measuring gases emitted by a volcano.

A new app developed by scientists showing the close link between volcanoes and earthquakes will also help bring them closer to the cherished goal of being able to predict volcanic eruptions by better measuring the degassing of carbon dioxide occurring before an eruption.

Called E3, the app allows users to see the last 50 years of eruptions, earthquakes and emissions with one click.

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"This app is interesting not only for educators and the public, but also will help scientists understand global eruption patterns and linkages between Earth's inner workings and the air we breathe," said Elizabeth Cottrell, head of the Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, DC.

E3 allows users to select and learn about individual eruptions, emissions and earthquakes, as well as their collective impact. It visualizes these huge global datasets together for the first time, and users can speed or slow or stop the passage of time.

"We're getting more and more confident that changes in the carbon to sulfur ratio precede eruptions," said Maarten de Moor from the National University in Costa Rica.

"Potentially, we can now see an eruption coming just by looking at gas emissions. What is truly fascinating is how dynamic these volcanoes are in their degassing and eruptive behavior. To understand the big picture of Earth degassing, we also need to understand the processes driving temporal variations in volcanic emissions."

Data from Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) feed into the app. The datasets are available for free download. The app will update continuously, accumulating new events and additional historical information as it becomes available.

A team of experts developed the app with support from the Smithsonian Institution and the Deep Carbon Observatory (DCO), an international multidisciplinary research program exploring the quantities, movements, forms, and origins of carbon deep inside Earth.

DCO scientists are studying volcanic emissions as part of this mission, and will more than triple the number of permanent volcano gas monitoring stations from 2012-2019.

Recent discoveries by DCO scientists in the Deep Earth Carbon Degassing (DECADE) initiative are laying the foundation for improved volcanic eruption forecasts.

"We are deploying automated monitoring stations at volcanoes around the world to measure the gases they emit," said Tobias Fischer, a volcanologist at the University of New Mexico, USA, and leader of DECADE.

"We measure carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and water vapor (steam), the major gases emitted by all volcanoes on the planet. In the hours before an eruption, we see consistent changes in the amount of carbon dioxide emitted relative to sulfur dioxide.

"Keeping an eye on the ratios globally via satellites and on-site monitoring helps us learn the precursors of volcanic eruptions. Monitoring these volcanic gas variations also helps us come up with a more accurate estimate of total volcanic carbon dioxide emissions on Earth -- a major goal of DCO."

"Our goal of tripling the number of volcanoes monitored around the world by 2019 is no small task," added Fischer. "Installing instruments on top of volcanoes is dangerous work in extremely hard-to-reach places."

By 2019, DECADE scientists hope to have gas monitoring stations on 15 of the world's 150 most active volcanoes. This will add to the eight stations currently operated by other entities such as the USGS and the University of Palermo (Italy).

Data collected at these monitoring stations are feeding a new database of volcanic carbon emissions, making potentially life-saving information available to many more scientists around the world.

To assess volcanic activity and gas release on a global scale, DCO researchers at the University of Cambridge, UK, are taking yet another approach; measuring volcanic gases from space using satellites.

"With satellites, we have been able to measure sulfur dioxide emissions for years and the technology keeps getting better," said Marie Edmonds, co-chair of DCO's Reservoirs and Fluxes Science Community.

"An exciting new aspect of DCO's research combines the satellite data with ground-based measurements of carbon to sulfur ratios provided by DECADE. This powerful combination allows us to better define global volcanic emissions, or degassing, of carbon dioxide."

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