President Rodrigo Duterte's shift away from the Philippines' U.S. alliance and towards China could weaken his negotiating position when he talks with Beijing on the South China Sea dispute.

Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said on Wednesday that Duterte is throwing away its only leverage--the U.S. treaty agreements with the Philippines--by embracing China and rejecting Washington.

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"The threat of U.S. intervention is what has prevented more overt Chinese aggression at Second Thomas Shoal or Scarborough Shoal," Poling said.

Leverage

"Now Duterte is throwing that leverage overboard before he has even gotten into a room with Xi Jinping," he added.

Poling questioned Duterte's decision to craft an independent foreign policy that veers away from the U.S., Manila's longtime ally, in a bid to improve the Philippines' relations with Beijing.

Poling said he was baffled by Duterte's move to reject the US alliance as a pre-condition to form a new partnership with China.

Traditional allies

"What is being asked by critics in the Philippines is why does an independent foreign policy mean distancing yourself from your traditional allies," he pointed out.

Duterte is set to embark on an official state visit to China next week, and economists say Manila stands to receive a bonanza of loans and trade agreements during the trip.

Chance of success

Poling said Duterte might spoil his chance of success in seeking better deals for the Philippines by simultaneously wooing Beijing and moving away from its traditional allies like the US.

"Duterte's simultaneously rejection of the US and embrace of China is doubly concerning from a more practical standpoint, because if he really expects to have fruitful negotiations with China on the thorny issues of the South China Sea and try to reach a deal, why is he giving up his only leverage, which is the US treaty commitment?" Poling asked.

Before Duterte assumed the presidential office, he said he was willing to set aside Manila's dispute with Beijing over the South China Sea in exchange for infrastructure investment from China.

July 12 ruling

Now in his fourth month as president, Duterte has backed off in pushing for the implementation of the July 12 ruling by an international arbitration court favoring the Philippines' territorial claims in the South China Sea.

He instead said that he would opt for negotiations and would discuss the possibility of opening up the disputed Scarborough Shoal to Filipino fishermen.

Political analysts say Duterte's trip to China would have been the best time for him to discuss sovereignty issues on the Scarborough Shoal and capitalize on Manila's victory.

"Let's just not dwell on Scarborough because we cannot fight them (Chinese troops)," Duterte said on Wednesday at a press briefing.

Duterte is set to make his first official state visit to China next week and hold talks with his counterpart, President Xi Jinping.

More than 250 Filipino business executives will accompany the president on his trip, hoping to strike deals worth billions of dollars with Chinese businessmen and the government.

TagsUS-Philippine treaties, Washington, China visit, china