The United States and China will likely blunder into a war over a minor incident -- much like the Great Powers in Europe did in World War I -- with the result of this war being a likely U.S. victory if that war were fought before 2025 and a bloody stalemate were it to be fought beyond that year.

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A Chinese victory is ruled out under both scenarios.

Noted U.S. non-profit global think tank the RAND Corporation based in California also believes any coming war will be a conventional one that will not see the use of nuclear weapons.

In its new study, "War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable," RAND said a U.S. victory after 2025 will be in doubt due to the maturity by then of China's anti-access, area denial (A2/AD) defensive network plus China's deployment of two combat-capable aircraft carriers.

A war before 2025, however, will likely establish U.S. military dominance with a decisive victory against China.

"Premeditated war between the United States and China is very unlikely, but the danger that a mishandled crisis could trigger hostilities cannot be ignored," said RAND in its report.

"Technological advances in the ability to target opposing forces are creating conditions of conventional counterforce, whereby each side has the means to strike and degrade the other's forces and, therefore, an incentive to do so promptly, if not first."

The study predicts that fifth-generation fighters will shoot down fourth-generation fighters (of which China has an abundance) with near impunity. The U.S. already fields two types of operational fifth generation stealth fighters: the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor and the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II.

In contrast, China does not have a single operational fifth-generation stealth fighter today. It's only stealth fighter, the Chengdu J-20, is expected to enter service with the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) by 2025. Only some 10 of these fighters have been produced so far and none is combat ready.

The F-22 has been in service since 2005 while the F-35 did so this year.

In RAND's analysis, American stealth jets will gain the air superiority needed to ensure successful air launched and naval-launched missile attacks on China's A2/AD network of anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the DF-21D. Without the PLAAF achieving air superiority, China's A2/Ad network is practically useless.

RAND noted that despite the U.S.' greater numbers of fifth-generation fighters and aircraft carriers, China's growing missile arsenal might force America to act cautiously or risk high losses.

The war will also see the U.S. and China destroy a significant number of each other's military satellites. The destruction of the American satellite constellation would be a problem for the rest of the world since nearly all GPS units connect to American satellites.

RAND predicts it's very unlikely China can win a war with the U.S. What China can do is to make the war so bloody that even average Americans would suffer greatly.

"By 2025, U.S. losses could range from significant to heavy; Chinese losses, while still very heavy, could be somewhat less than in 2015, owing to increased degradation of U.S. strike capabilities," accordingt o RAND.

"China's (anti-access weapons) will make it increasingly difficult for the U.S. to gain military-operational dominance and victory, even in a long war."

TagsUnited States, china, RAND Corporation, war, 2025, War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable