CHINA TOPIX

11/21/2024 10:18:47 pm

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China’s Navy in Disarray as it Prepares for War against the United States over the South China Sea

In Asia

(Photo : US Navy) USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group.

China's state propaganda machine is now openly speculating a war between China and the United States is likelier now than ever before due to openly hostile anti-China statements by U.S. President Donald Trump and ranking members of his new administration.

An op-ed piece on the website of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the armed forces of the Communist Party of China (CPC), said the PLA is raising its level of preparedness so it can fight a war should ties between Beijing and Washington cross the point of no return.

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The coming war will be a naval war where the qualitatively and quantitatively inferior People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will seek to prevent the more powerful U.S. Navy from invading China's man-made islands and those it unlawfully took from the Philippines in the South China Sea.

A naval war is expected to end quickly in a Chinese defeat.

Dennis Blair, who was the United States' Director of National Intelligence from 2009 to 2010 and former Commander, United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) from 1999 to 2002, in late 2016 estimated offensive operations by the U.S. Navy and Air Force to seize China's illegally occupied islands will only be "probably 10 or 15 minutes' worth of worth of work for U.S. forces."

Blair is confident the U.S. Navy and the Air Force are capable of rapidly "neutralizing" China's outposts in the South China Sea, which are practically defenseless from a determined attack since they're isolated and strung out over hundreds of kilometers of sea.

China's heavily hyped DF-21 anti-ship ballistic missile is still under development and its immature kill chain might prevent it from even acquiring fast moving U.S. Navy carrier strike groups hundreds of kilometers distant.

The PLA said the chances of war today have become "more real" amid a more complex security situation in the Asia Pacific. The op-ed said the call for a U.S. rebalancing to Asia; military deployments in the East China Sea and South China Sea and the instillation of the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea are hot spots moving closer to ignition.

"'A war within the president's term' or 'war breaking out tonight' are not just slogans, they are becoming a practical reality," said the story.

PLAN, however, is in no condition to fight a war since its command structure is in complete disarray. It reshuffled its senior command since the start of January and is now led by admirals that have been at their posts for only two weeks.

PLAN appointed a new commander, as well as new commanders for it three fleets -- the North, East and South Sea Fleets -- over the past two weeks.

PLAN is now commanded by Vice Admiral Shen Jinlong. Vice Admiral Wang Hai was promoted to Commander of the South Sea Fleet.

Rear Admiral Zhang Wendan is now the Commander of the North Sea Fleet. Rear Admiral Wei Gang was promoted to Commander of the East Sea Fleet.

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