CHINA TOPIX

12/22/2024 01:26:42 pm

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China’s Utter Defeat in a War vs the US Might Trigger Civil War in China and Destruction of the Communist Party

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(Photo : USAF) USAF F-35As.

China will be "utterly defeated" in a war against the United States over the South China Sea, a loss that might ignite a civil war in China and destroy the Communist Party of China (CPC).

American experts are unanimous in their agreement the U.S. will emerge victorious in a war against China fought within the next decade given the immense military, technological and numerical superiority of the United States Armed Forces, and the unrivalled combat experience of its commanders and officers.

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A U.S. victory in these circumstances is a given. What is left open to debate are the consequences of a military defeat on the CPC, which rules China only through the terror instilled in its opposition by the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

An inevitable consequence will be social unrest that might trigger a civil war.

PLA is the armed forces of the CPC and not the Chinese state. It owes its first allegiance to the CPC and is pledged to protect the 83 million members of the CPC ahead of the rest of China's total population of 1.36 billion.

This inherent weakness is the main reason the Trump administration is beating louder the drums of war. Steve Bannon, a close Trump adviser, said in 2016 a war with China is inevitable within the next five to 10 years.

The U.S. will lose thousands of men in this war but China will be "utterly defeated."

"America would take military losses. They would lose thousands and thousands (of men)," said Dr. Peter Roberts, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute.

"But China would be utterly defeated. If America goes to war, it wages war in its totality. They would go to this with unparalleled violence and energy."

He noted the U.S. has an "overall competitive edge" partly due to technological superiority. Dr. Roberts also noted the four branches of the U.S. armed forces -- Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force -- are trained to work closely together.

"It's demonstrated how it can use all those arms to deliver military victory," he said.

On the other hand, the four armed services of the PLA operate "individually" and also have less, and less recent, combat experience compared to the Americans.

"There's a huge difference between someone who's been in combat before, and someone who hasn't," said Dr. Roberts.

He compared the potential confrontation to one between the mythical Greek hero and professional soldier, Achilles, and Greek farmers recruited from the fields to become part-time soldiers.

The PLA armed services are the People's Liberation Army Ground Force; People's Liberation Army Navy; People's Liberation Army Air Force and People's Liberation Army Rocket Force.

U.S. numerical superiority is also a deciding factor in a U.S. victory in the coming war.

"US naval superiority is massive," said Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese studies and director of King's College London's Lau China Institute.

"And if we are talking just military, then for sure, a conflict right beside China would hurt China more than the US."

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