Previous Ebola Mathematical Model Prove to be Irrelevant, Researchers Say
Paula Marie Navarra | | Sep 17, 2014 12:44 PM EDT |
A new study from the University of Warwick showed that the mathematical model commonly used to replicate the Ebola outbreaks could no longer be used to the current outbreak.
Thomas House, one of the researchers, said that to address this researchers he and his colleagues a new model that incorporated the data from past outbreaks.
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He said that by analayzing the data from past outbreaks they are able to design a model that records the cases of the virus spreading and replication to their eventual size.
House said that the current outbreak is different from the previous pattern, therefore, making it hard for them to provide an accurate prediction of the outbreak.
He said that through looking at past Ebola outbreaks they pinpoint an identifiable way in predicting the overall size of the outbreak.
This can allow researchers to monitor the number of cases of infection and control its spread, he added.
The researchers also calculated unexpected events that a patient can experience, such as being alone when ill and their travel patterns.
House said that current outbreak is more severe than previous outbreaks that can be possibly caused by the mutation of the virus and changes in the social contact patterns.
He said that it is hard to compare the severity of the current outbreak to the the severity of previous outbreaks.
Researchers said that they are not in the position to quantify the scale of the outbreak, they're focus is in the mobilization of their resources to combat the disease.
To date, the United Nations is calling for USD$1 billion for further research that could defeat the new Ebola outbreak.
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