Ebola Infections Could Spike to 10,000 New Cases per Week before Christmas, Says WHO Official
Andy Vitalicio | | Oct 14, 2014 06:00 PM EDT |
(Photo : REUTERS) WHO Assistant Director-General Bruce Aylward holds up statistics about the spread of Ebola in West Africa.
The World Health Organization warns that the Ebola epidemic could worsen and may lead to 10,000 new cases a week before Christmas, as it encourages nations to support a plan to prevent the spread of the virus.
At a press conference at the group's headquarters in Zurich, Dr. Bruce Aylward, WHO assistant director-general in charge of the organization's response to the epidemic, said the Ebola virus is "still moving geographically, still escalating" in most of the affected areas.
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One major concern, says Aylward, is that the disease could spread to countries that share borders with the epicenter countries - Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia - with Côte d'Ivoire singled out as particularly vulnerable.
The WHO official said that there have been about 1,000 new cases per week for the last month, this figure including suspected, confirmed and probable cases. WHO has a death toll tally of 4,447, nearly all of them in West Africa. The number of probable and suspected cases was 8,914.
Dr. Aylward is pushing for WHO's goal of safely burying 70% of those who have died of Ebola, and treating 70% of those sick within 60 days. It's WHO's 70-70-60 Plan to help prevent the spread.
"Every time you isolate another patient, every time you have a safe burial, you're taking some of the heat out of this outbreak," Dr. Aylward said.
Based on the latest WHO figures, the mortality rate is just under 50%. But Dr. Aylward said that when patients can be monitored throughout the course of their disease the mortality rate is actually 70% in the affected countries.
In areas where invstigations have been carried out in detail, Dr. Aylward said it was clear that only 30% of people were surviving, adding that the figure was almost exactly the same number in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
"This is a high mortality disease in any circumstances but particularly in these places," said Aylward.
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