CHINA TOPIX

12/24/2024 08:07:54 am

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China’s Economy Slows Down With 7.3% GDP Growth Rate, Weakest In 5 Years

China Becomes World's Largest Economy

(Photo : Reuters/Shannon Stapleton) China has overtaken the United States as the world's largest economy based on the purchasing power parity measure, International Monetary Fund figures show.

China's economy slowed down during the third quarter of 2014, registering a 7.3 percent GDP growth rate--its weakest growth in five years. For Q2, China logged a 7.5 percent growth rate, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics.

Despite the slowdown caused by the weak real estate market and laggard domestic demand and industrial production, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang - an economist by training - said the slower growth is okay as long as its job market continues to remain stable. He said the slower pace of growth was expected as a consequence of economic reforms initiated by Beijing, India Times reports.

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Nonetheless, the 7.3 percent economic expansion is still better compared to the 6.6 percent GDP growth rate in 2009 as an aftermath of the global financial crisis. At that time, millions of Chinese workers lost their jobs.

However, it is not all bad news since exports, power production, and bank lending improved in September, said Bank of Communications senior economist Tan Jianwei.

For the first quarter, the national economy expanded by 7.4 percent. But several stimulus initiative such as investments in infrastructure and a reduction in the reserve requirement for smaller lenders resulted in the GDP growth rate slightly increasing to 75 percent in Q2.

With the Q3 data, the country 2014 GDP growth rate is expected to be about 7.5 percent if policy makers are pressured to pursue easing policies in the last quarter. But it excludes a broad-based stimulus program that could worsen China's debt problem and cause overcapacity.

To negate the impact of the slowdown, China has launched several fiscal and monetary stimulus measures such as higher spending on railways, energy and public housing projects, more credit to farmers and private businesses as well as eased housing regulations.

The country's real estate industry, which makes up about 50 percent of China's GDP if steel, appliance and construction are included, dragged the country's economy as home sales by value tumbled down 10.8 percent for the first three quarters, explains The Australian.

But Tao Wang, China economist at UBS, said in a note that while there is further relaxation of credit supply via a higher base money supply and relaxation of loan quotas, it does not anticipate a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio unless persistent large foreign exchange outflows are observed. But Tan said Chinese businesses are expecting a wholesale cut in the key lending rate toward the end of 2014 or in early 2015 to lower borrowing costs and the further improve the cash flow of enterprises.

By global standards, 7 percent is nothing to be ashamed of, but to create about 10 million jobs yearly for China's burgeoning headcount, Beijing must at least log 7.2 percent GDP growth rate.

Credit Suisse, in its research note quoted by The Wall Street Journal, noted that "Despite the weak structural growth momentum, there is little chance of a hard landing given the large amount of tools in government's hands."

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