CHINA TOPIX

11/23/2024 02:19:59 pm

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Economists Believe China’s Property Bubble Has Popped

China real estate bubble

(Photo : Trex Global) China real estate bubble.

Economists have announced that China's property bubble has already burst and that this could result in a slower economy unless the government intervenes and provides a way to stimulate it again.

Three of the analysts in Nomura, a Japan-based financial holding firm, have said they are convinced that the industry has already gone past the "turning point," according to CNN Money.

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According to skeptics, the real estate industry is a symbol of various problems such as quick expansion of credits and policies that are geared towards short-term growth rather than a balanced economy. They also said the supply of buildings is already greater than the demand in some regions, the report explained.

Those who are bullish of the property sector think that the building rush is sustainable, especially that many Chinese are migrating from rural to urban areas, the report added.

Records show that the number of new houses being constructed has plunged by 25%, and the number of sales in the sector has also suffered significantly. Prices of properties have also weakened, the report detailed.

Another factor contributing to the risk of a slowdown is the difficulty that developers are encountering in raising funds and investments, the report said.

Nomura forecasts that China's GDP will slow down to 6.8% in 2015. The firm also sees a one-in-three chance that the economy's growth will plunge below 5% for four consecutive quarters, the report relayed.

Should Nomura's predictions come to pass, China's trading partners will be affected. Among those that would be hard hit are the exporters that deliver the materials and equipment for construction, the report stated.

Nomura also said China would most likely relax its monetary and fiscal regulations in the next few months to back the ailing industry. Local governments will also probably lend a hand, the report said.

Although these measures may assist the economy for a short time, analysts said they will have little effect to existing imbalances in the property industry's structure, the report added.

Some analysts are rather optimistic. On Monday, UBS economists expressed their confidence in the government's ability to prevent the property sector from collapsing, CNN Money reported. 

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