CHINA TOPIX

12/22/2024 10:29:09 pm

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China’s Neighbors Cannot Expect Higher Demand for Commodities In 2015

Shanghai Stock Exchange

(Photo : Reuters) A man talks on the phone inside the Shanghai Stock Exchange building at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai.

With 2014 about to end, Asian nations heavily dependent on China's demand for their commodities to boost their respective economies are advised to brace for lower demand from Beijing.

In an opinion piece, Bloomberg View columnist William Pesek wrote that China's neighbors have to do the inevitable and rebalance their economies, while weaning from the Chinese economy. He said these nations must develop domestic economies that are diversified and vibrant to be driven more by services and innovation, instead of exports.

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He cited an assessment of Simon Grose-Hodge, head of Asian strategy at Singapore-based LGT Group, who pointed out, "With China intent on continuing reform to generate quality growth at a lower level, the rest of Asia cannot expect any help in terms of overall demand."

While many policymakers think the worst is over for the Chinese economy after the country's leaders have shifted their growth strategy from too much investment and exports to services and consumption, chances of double digit growth rates returning is nil, Pesek wrote.

He even doubts if China would achieve a 7.5 percent GDP in 2015, which was confirmed by the release on Sunday by the Chinese central bank of growth forecasts.

According to the People's Bank of China, while it foresees stronger global demands boosting Chinese exports, it is not sufficient to replace the negative effect of continued weakening investment in real estate, leading to a lower 7.1 percent GDP next year from the current 7.4 percent, Reuters reports.

The central bank foresees 6.9 percent growth in export next year from 2014's 6.1 percent increase, and 5.1 percent in import in 2015 from 1.9 percent this year.

Pesek said that if Asia used to react to movements in the American economy in the past, it would now be weakened due to China's sudden and deep slowdown. He added that Asian nations would be in a stronger position if they begin preparing for the worst now.



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