Lower Oil Prices Won't Lift China's Economy in 2015 - Moody's
Marcel Woo | | Feb 12, 2015 03:40 AM EST |
A man looks at the Pudong financial district of Shanghai. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Despite the decrease in the global oil prices, China's economic growth will continue to be lackluster this year and in the next year, said Moody's Investors Service in a report.
Moody's forecast China's economic growth to fall below 7 percent this year from last year's 7.4 percent. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2016 is forecast to further fall to 6.5%.
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While prices of oil will continue to fall this year, Moody's said cheaper oil will not have a major impact on China's economy because its benefits will be dampened by higher energy taxes and state-controlled prices in some energy and transport sectors.
Moody's added that the lower oil prices will only benefit the US economy and not the entire global economy because of the slowdown in China, Japan, Brazil and the euro area.
The US economy is forecast to grow 3.2 percent this year, up from 3 percent in the last quarterly report released in November of last year. The growth, Moody's said, will continue to remain strong at 2.8 percent in 2016.
"The US is one of the main beneficiaries of cheaper oil," says Marie Diron, a Moody's Senior Vice President and author of the report. "The favorable economic environment in the US will encourage consumers and companies to spend part of the gains in real income that come from lower energy costs."
GDP growth forecast for the G20 countries has also been lowered to under 3 percent in both 2015 and 2016 as Diron stressed that a range of factors will offset the windfall income gains from cheaper energy.
Moody's global growth outlook is based on the assumption that oil prices will average US $55 a barrel this year, rising to US $65 on average in 2016. The report assumes that oil prices will stay near current levels in 2015.
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