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11/02/2024 09:41:23 am

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Unimaginable 'Megadrought' Threatens U.S. by 2050

San Francisco drought

(Photo : Reuters) An automobile tire is shown at the bottom of the Almaden Reservoir near San Jose, California.

Researchers claim global warming will bring the "unprecedented" risk of a decades-long megadrought in the American Southwest and Great Plains during the second half of the century.

This destructive megadrought is likely to hit by 2050 and stick around because of global warming.

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"Nearly every year is going to be dry toward the end of the 21st century compared to what we think of as normal conditions now. We're going to have to think about a much drier future in western North America," said study lead author Benjamin Cook, NASA atmospheric scientist.

NASA researchers used historic tree ring data and three drought measures to conclude there is at least an 80 percent chance of a 35 year long drought occurring by the end of this century.

The regions Cook looked at include California, Nevada, Utah, Oklahoma, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, northern Texas, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, most of Iowa, southern Minnesota, western Missouri, western Arkansas, and northwestern Louisiana.

Cook and his co-authors, Toby Ault, a geoscientist at Cornell University, and climate scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Jason Smerdon, said human-produced greenhouse gasses were increasing the likelihood of future droughts.

They added that higher temperatures, low precipitation and increased rates of evaporation would result in drier soils. Their model was based on predicted emissions, and that reductions in those emissions could mitigate future drying.

Paleoclimatic evidence gathered suggests intense periods of dryness occurred in this region from the 9th to the 14th centuries, a period now called the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

They also said this future megadrought will probably exceed that of the Medieval Anomaly.

The new study was published in the journal, Science Advances.

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