Nigerian rebel group Boko Haram seems to be changing its tactics as military and multinational security forces continue to launch intensified offensives.

From setting up what seems to be a Boko Haram community in northeastern Nigeria, the rebel group is now back to its hit-and-run style, a possible indication that the group can no longer sustain its long-term intention to rule. 

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Boko Haram's attack on the Nigerian city of Gombe earlier this month caught many off guard. The rebels fired on soldiers and gave away leaflets that warned people not to participate in the March 28 presidential elections.

However, observers say the motive of Boko Haram was likely to provoke widespread fear rather than to take control of the territory.

"I think their aim was to scare people inside the Gombe town, because ... they right entered the heart of the town, even around the military barrack area," said a resident of the town of Dadin Kowa who wanted to remain anonymous.

In recent weeks, Nigerian forces, together with troops from neighboring Chad, Cameroon and Niger hurled a joint all-out war against the rebel group, pushing them out of their strongholds.

"If the offensive gets more intensive, then we will see them looking for new frontiers to wage their war," said security analyst Alkasim Abdulkadir. "Now they are going to activate cells in cities and attempt to hit at cities, and continue the war, but not in occupying territories, and not in being very defensive."

A member of an interfaith group also believes Boko Haram is desperate to find a way to escape, saying the group could not seek refuge from neighboring countries like Chad, Niger and Cameroon which are also launching attacks against them. 

Imam Dauda Bello of the Adamawa Peace Initiative said as long as the militants can enter small villages undetected, some of them will be able to escape and pass themselves off as ordinary residents.

Last weekend, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius visited the region and urged Nigeria to fully commit in battling Boko Haram. Earlier this month, Nigeria assured all Boko Haram camps will be "taken out" before the presidential elections slated on March 28^th.

Paris had also committed to assist and increase its intelligence sharing with Nigeria and its neighbors in destroying the rebel group.

TagsBoko Haram, guerilla tactics, militants, Nigeria