CHINA TOPIX

11/25/2024 12:38:12 am

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China's Debt Fueled Growth Could Spark Slowdown by 2015

China's obssession with unbroken economic growth is causing economists to again warn the massive debt fueling that growth is becoming unsustainable.

Economists said the momentum from recent pro-growth policies intended to show the world that China's growth continues unabated is expected to fizzle out toward the end of 2014.

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Beijing's current "targeted stimulus" strategy is based on expanding credit and accelerating government spending. This strategy worked in 2013 and so far this year has arrested a sharp slowdown in growth, according to economists.

Second-quarter growth inched upwards slightly to 7.5% on-year, said the National Bureau of Statistics, compared to 7.4% in the first quarter.

This slight uptick, however, serves only to mask fundamental flaws in Beijing's targeted stimulus strategy that periodically unleashes huge amounts of cash to stave-off bouts of economic deceleration.

Bereft of the money to ignite more government-funded growth in 2015, Beijing is again prepring to confront a dilemma it has sought to sweep under the rug: How much of an economic slowdown can it bear in 2015?

CIMB Securities Ltd. economist Fan Zhang estimated that Beijing's string of ministimulus measures added one-third to one-half a percentage point to growth over the past year. Zhang, however, doubts the measures will last until this fourth quarter.

"If you add up all the ministimulus measures, with local governments rolling out a lot, they're not so mini," he said.

Some economists, however, believe Beijing will be unable to wean itself away from its quick fix targeted stimnukus strategy. Official government data seems to bear out this assumption.

Government spending jumped 26% in June year-on-year. Total social financing, a broader measure of credit in the economy, rose by 40% in June compared to May.

This massive monetary input did have its benefits: value-added industrial output rose 9.2 percent on-year in June compared to an 8.8 percent increase in May. Retail sales growth also rose to 12.4% in June on-year compared with 12.5% in May.

Economists are increasingly worried that the money flooding the economy, while good for growth, will add to long-term problems such as an uncomfortable rise in debt.

Some believe that China's reforms so far haven't been enough to really transform the view that China's growth is now only possible through continued government intervention via quarterly ministimulus measures.

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