CHINA TOPIX

11/22/2024 10:38:41 am

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China's Port Ore Inventories Down, Nickel Deficit Becomes More Apparent

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(Photo : Reuters) Chinese ports are expected to bottom out their inventories by April this year, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).

The mining industry is moving closer to a mineral supply deficit as China uses up the nickel ore inventories in its five major ports, several reports said.

A report from Metals.com revealed that last week, ore inventories at China's ports Tianjin, Rizhao, Lanshan, Lianyungang, and Jingtang were down by 145,000 tons to 11.71 million tons. The week prior to that, total nickel ore inventories were standing at 11.85 million tons, down by 289,000 tonnes per week.

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Mining Weekly reported in November that the Chinese ports are expected to bottom out their inventories by April this year, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). China's port stockpiles make up 70 percent of its port inventories.  

In October, nickel ore stocks stood at 17.2 million tonnes, representing a decrease by 3.12-million tonnes or 17 percent year-on-year, SMM data showed. It also estimated China's nickel to be around 21.81 million tonnes, 15.81 million tonnes of which is available.

But as of January 23 this year, China's imports have dropped by 504,000 million tonnes week-on-week to 12.45 million tonnes, according to Hellenic Shipping News.

In December, nickel ores and concentrates shipments to the country were down to 2.48 million tonnes, representing a 61.7 percent decline year-on-year, and 13.3 percent decline month-on-month, data from the General Administration of Customs revealed.

While China added imports from the Philippines, the second largest ore supplier globally after Indonesia, to 73.3% year-on-year to 2.41 million in December, it was trumped by a 100 percent decline in imports from Indonesia. Before it imposed a ban on exports of raw minerals, Indonesia was China's largest nickel ore and concentrate supplier.

The shipments are forecasted to climb back to normal levels only after March, Hellenic Shipping said. Analysts maintain that the imports will "continue falling" as Philippine mines are affected by monsoon season.

Nickel's journey was a bumpy one last year following Indonesia's implementation of an export ore ban in early January. The country imposed the curb to bring investments into the local economy through the construction of new ore processing plants. Prior to the ban, the country was rumored to impose a "tamer phased ban," according to a report on Nickel Investing News.

The ban pushed nickel prices up to an all-time high in May, which trickled down to the share prices of other "nickel-focused" companies outside the Southeast Asian country. Indeed, most companies are optimistic about the trends in nickel prices as an offshoot of the ban. Amur Minerals Corporation (OTC:AMMCF) chief executive Robin Young, for instance, was bullish about the trend.

"We're very encouraged in this and we have a great neighbor to the Southwest, in China, who is a very hungry nickel consumer," Amur chief executive Robin Young said in an interview with BRR Media. Amur Minerals currently runs and operates the Kun-Manie mine in the Amur Oblast which is ranked as one of the top 20 largest nickel mines in the world.

Glencore's (LSE:GLEN) Kenny Ives also expect the deficit would be in favor of nickel players. According to Platts, he announced during last month's investor day that he expects a "balanced 2015" and a deficit to appear after that point until 2018.

Charlotte McLeod, a columnist at Nickel Investing, also echoes Ives's claims. "Whether 2015 brings a deficit or merely stability, nickel market participants will likely be pleased to get some relief from the turmoil of the past few years," she noted.

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