CHINA TOPIX

11/22/2024 05:39:28 am

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Falling Chinese Exports Push Nickel Prices to Three-Week High

Chinese Steel Industry Suffers Losses As Demand Shrinks

(Photo : Reuters) On last trading, nickel prices rose to its highest level in three weeks as February imports in China slumped to its lowest levels.

For months now, nickel prices have been highly dependent on economic signals from China. The weaker Chinese economy has been suppressing demand from local steel producers, making nickel prices lower than ever.

On last trading, nickel prices rose to its highest level in three weeks as February imports in China slumped to its lowest levels. Moreover, the recent decline in exports has also affected the investment sector as local and foreign investors shy away from putting money on local assets.

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Experts believe that this could imperil Premier Li Keqiang's seven percent growth rate target for this year, which, in turn, will increase the pressure for creating another economic stimulus from the People's Bank of China.

"Every down tick in Chinese data is matched by expectations of stimulus. If there is stimulus, including infrastructure development, demand for base metals will increase," Michael Turek, the head of base metals at BGC Partners Inc., told Bloomberg.

Three-month nickel increased by 2 percent to close at $13,440 a ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), its highest price since May 19.

The Indonesian ore ban remains an important entity for nickel as its absence would affect base metals' prices on the world market. Nickel prices could succumb to lower prices if the ban gets lifted as supplies will immediately go back to normal. Nickel players are still hoping for a possible supply deficit that would give the industrial metal better prices before the year ends.

According to Hu Ziqi, a Shanghai-based analyst at BOC International Futures Co., stainless steel manufacturers in China need to pick up this year as inventories rise to offset the sliding supply sector.

Last month, nickel recorded its biggest supply slump after dropping as much as 2.3 percent after slumping 6.4 percent in May.

Investors are now looking at newcomers like Amur Minerals Corporation (OTC:AMMCF), which recently obtained a pre-production license from the Russian government, as one of the potential drivers of the supply segment. Its projected 90 million tons of nickel production could cater to global steel producers from China, Japan, South Korea, as well as to other emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region like Malaysia and Thailand.

Nickel investors should also hope for weaker dollar prices in the entire year so that the entire base metals segment could finally recover from bearish prices.

However, this seems far from happening as the dollar yet again edged back from Friday's highs after a strong Eurozone data on last trading.  Currently, the dollar is 1.1139 against the euro, buoyed by 280, 000 new jobs created in the States last month. This surpassed the 222,000 estimates for job generation in the country, the highest increase in several months.

Today, nickel remains the weakest and most precarious commodity item in the base metals segment. 

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