CHINA TOPIX

12/22/2024 10:38:58 pm

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Infrastructure Spending Increase in China Could Lift Base Metals Prices Up

Shanghai Composite Index

(Photo : Getty Images) A man observes stock market at an exchange hall on August 5, 2015 in Haikou, Hainan Province of China. Chinese shares wobbled and fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index lost 6.97 points, or 1.5 percent, to close at 3,694.57 points.

The Chinese government knows that the recent improvements in the financial sector are not sustainable enough to help the economy maintain its growth, which remains relatively meagre compared with past figures.

In the first half of this year, the country's economy recorded a 7 percent growth due to share turnover rate similar to what was recorded in the late '90s and early 2000s.

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"The rally in the Shanghai Composite index around the dawning of the new millennium, [which] was widely seen as supported by the government, as a means to support the SOE [state-owned enterprises] reform at that time," Vincent Chan, Credit Suisse's head of China research, told Bloomberg.

During this period, the market sold off sharply after the government decided to unload state-owned firms, which ended up ineffectual until a non-tradable share reform was introduced in the middle of the decade.

In 2009, China enhanced their infrastructure spending through 2012, which slightly helped the economy continue its growth rate. Its success convinced Chinese officials to introduce another infrastructure spending-bolstering activity today, believing that it could save the economy from another crash.

In turn, this will directly help the ailing base metals segment which has been suffering from weak prices ever since Chinese consumers minimized their metal exports in the first quarter of this year.

Economists and investors agree that the only thing that could pull base metals off bearish prices is a restored Chinese consumption. A global demand pickup led by China could introduce radical changes in the segment, making copper, nickel, lead, tin, aluminium, and zinc relevant again to metal investors.

Miners like Amur Minerals Corporation (OTC:AMMCF), which is expected to join the global commerce anytime soon, could also enjoy enhanced reputation boost from investors. Its projected 90 million tons of high-grade nickel ore production could help steelmakers in China, most especially if producers from the Philippines fail to meet the sudden demand increase. In July, several local ore miners in the Philippines admitted that they may run out of supply before 2015 ends.

Although some finance experts in China doubt the efficacy of another round of infrastructure investment, there are some who believe that it is the most logical thing to do now.

"The combination of high borrowing cost, increased risk aversion amongst commercial banks, and delays in fiscal support saw Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) growth decelerating to a decade low of 11.4 percent year-on-year in June," said HSBC chief China economist Hongbin Qu in a statement.

He also added that it is high time to elevate spending on infrastructure as it only grew by 19 percent year-over-year in the first two quarters of the year against the 23 percent increase in the same period of 2014, calling it an "obvious counter-cyclical policy tool."

According to reports, People's Bank of China will inject liquidity into policy banks-e.g. Export Import Bank of China and China Development Bank-to finance this undertaking.

James Sweeney of Credit Suisse, however, warns investors to take extra prudence when investing on Chinese stock, as the "signals for buying and selling are 'the opposite' to what's expected everywhere else in the world."

"The Chinese stock market behaves weirdly," he said. 

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