The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) begins the process of choosing the party's new leaders during its 12th National Congress on Wednesday in Hanoi.

The leadership transition -- which happens once every five years -- comes as Vietnam is in the midst of an increasingly bitter dispute with its old ally China. 

Like Us on Facebook

Hanoi has for decades contested China's control over the Spratly and Paracel Islands, in the South China Sea.  Tensions between the two old allies have resurfaced lately as China has taken a more muscular stance to its territorial claims over the areas.

Just two weeks ago, the Vietnamese government expressed outrage over China's landing of civilian aircraft on Fiery Cross Reef, claiming it is "a serious infringement" of Vietnam's supposed sovereignty over the territory.

"The Chinese side will not accept the unfounded accusation of the Vietnamese side," said Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying in response to Hanoi's protestations.

Speaking to Japan Times about the forthcoming CPV congress, Professor Zachary Abuza of the National War College in Washington said there have been vigorous discussions within the party about the future direction of Vietnam's relations with China.

"There are debates over strategies on how to deal with Chinese aggression," said Abuza.  "There are people in the party who are still fearful of antagonizing China."

But the decades-long dispute with Beijing has seen Vietnam drift closer toward Washington, allowing Hanoi to form deeper military and economic ties with its former foe. 

Some analysts now claim that one of the major challenges for Vietnam's incoming Communist leadership is how far, and how fast, the country should improve ties with the US. 

"What is of utmost importance is that we have been transformed from former enemies to become friends, partners -- comprehensive partners," said CPV general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong during an official visit to Washington last July. "And I'm convinced that our relationship will continue to grow in the future."

Commerce between the US and Vietnam fell to almost nothing after the collapse of diplomatic ties between the two nations in 1975.  In the interlude, China and Vietnam built a cross-border trade now valued at around $67 billion, according to NBC News.

But the military and political situation in Southeast Asia has shifted the disposition of diplomatic alliances in the region.  In 2014, Washington announced that the US was lifting its weapons ban against Vietnam, and that it would spend nearly $20 billion to improve the country's maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. 

Commercial exchanges between Vietnam and the US have also ballooned, rising in value to some $41 billion in 2015.  And, in what many see as a definite indication of Vietnam's 'pivot to the West' policy, Hanoi and Washington are currently negotiating a defense deal that would allow US troops to travel to Cam Ranh Bay, a strategic naval hub just 600 kilometers south east of the disputed Paracel Islands.

Two men are expected to figure prominently in the upcoming vote for leadership over the CPV.  Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who has in the past demonstrated a willingness to confront Beijing on its territorial claims, is running against incumbent general secretary Trong, who reportedly favors a conciliatory approach toward China.

However, Raymond Burghardt, US ambassador to Vietnam from 2001 to 2004, believes the new leaders of the CPV will not -- at least for now -- veer too drastically to one side, whatever the outcome of this year's party congress.

"I think they are very torn," Burghardt said of the CPV. "Part of it is the inherent Vietnamese cautiousness about how it positions itself within what they call the triangle -- the US, China and Vietnam." 

TagsChina-Vietnam relations, US-China relations