China will gain full control over the South China Sea by 2030, practically transforming the 3.5 million square kilometer body of water into a "Chinese lake," according to a report issued recently by a respected Washington-based security think tank.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Tuesday released a report that claims the Obama administration's ambitious "rebalance to the Asia-Pacific" policy has suffered from a lack of sufficient articulation and resources since its inception in 2011.

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The report warns that the US has -- as a direct consequence -- lost a considerable amount of influence over the Asia Pacific region, where the scales of economic and military power have begun to tip in favor of China.

American Interests

The Pentagon commissioned the report after US lawmakers demanded an independent assessment of the country's strategy in the Asia Pacific ahead of a scheduled hearing of the Senate armed services committee. 

Citing mandatory budget cuts imposed on the US government in 2011 to address a massive deficit, the report contends that US President Barrack Obama's "rebalance" strategy may no longer be sufficient to secure American interests in the Asia Pacific region.

There is a widely held assertion that Obama had hoped to use his 'pivot to Asia' policy to renew alliances in the Asia Pacific, seize economic opportunities in the region, and escape excessive involvement in the problems of the war-torn Middle East.   

Analysts now expect Republican presidential candidates to seize on the report, and use it to support claims that Obama failed to respond to an increasingly assertive China, a resurgent Russia, and a nuclear-armed North Korea. 

Robust Funding

"As the world's fastest growing region -- and home to more than half the global economy -- the Asia Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority, and that's creating jobs and opportunity for the American people," Obama told the Australian Parliament in 2011, explaining the main objective of his plan to rebalance American foreign policy priorities.

But the grand shift has apparently turned out to be more difficult -- and more expensive -- than what Washington planners had initially anticipated.  

"Robust funding is needed to implement the rebalance," the report states.

The CSIS document devotes much attention to China's maritime activities in the South China Sea, where the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy continues to oversee the construction of artificial islands and other facilities in territories which fall under the rival claims of other nations.

Noting the speed and iron determination with which Beijing has modernized its military forces, the report maintains that by 2030 China will likely have enough aircraft carrier strike groups (CSGs) in the area to enhance its "regional prestige" and overwhelm rival claimants with its near constant naval presence.

Chinese Lake

"Whether they have seized territory or negotiated a resource-sharing scheme with some or all of the other claimants, the South China Sea will be virtually a Chinese lake, as the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico is for the United States today," says the report. "China's military capability and capacity will shape how the region behaves toward them without a need for menacing Chinese behavior."

The authors of the document urged Washington to counter China's South China Sea policy by developing a clear and coherent strategy for the Asia Pacific. They likewise recommend stronger US efforts to bolster regional allies and expand the country's military and economic reach throughout the region.  

"We reject the option of withdrawal from the Western Pacific because of these new challenges," the report says. "Such a withdrawal would lead to rapid deterioration of the security environment and render operations more difficult than easier."

The report -- entitled "Asia Pacific Rebalance 2025:  Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships" -- was prepared by a CSIS team led by Mike Green, Kath Hicks and Mark Cancian. 

Tagschina, Obama, Asia Pacific