The naval forces of the United States, Japan and India will conduct joint exercises this year in waters just north of the Philippines, a move which analysts say is likely to draw China's muted but watchful attention amid tensions over competing claims in the region.

The US military's top officer in the Pacific Admiral Harry Harris confirmed the site of the annual Malabar naval drills at a security conference in New Delhi on Wednesday. 

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The proposed area lies just northeast of the South China Sea, where the US is moving to increase its naval presence even as China builds airstrips, lighthouses and ports in the disputed area. 

"By being ambitious, India, Japan, Australia, the United States and so many other like-minded nations can aspire to patrol together anywhere international law allows," Harris said, adding that no nation should see the patrols as a threat.

"Admiration"

Despite the reassurance, analysts agree there is little doubt about Beijing's shadow over the exercise.

"While some countries seek to bully smaller nations through intimidation and coercion, I note with admiration India's example of peaceful resolution of disputes with your neighbors in the waters of the Indian Ocean," said Harris.

India  -- which has voiced some concern over China's actions in the South China Sea -- has moved to strengthen its partnership not only with the US and Japan, but also with Australia, which has expressed opposition to the scale of Beijing's activities in the contested waters.

Admiral Harris noted that India, Japan and Australia held an initial round of trilateral discussions on maritime security and freedom of navigation last year, and suggested that the US be included in the next round of talks.

"Adding the US into this dialogue can amplify the message that we are united behind the international rules-based order that has kept the peace and is essential to all of us," Harris said. 

Regional experts, however, are skeptical that a US-led quadrilateral alliance -- as suggested by Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007 -- can prosper beyond conference hall rhetoric at this point.   China condemned Abe's proposal in 2007, prompting Australia to withdraw from the planned grouping even before a first dialogue was held.

"At Your Doorstep"

More recently, Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, told the New York Times that India would not dare join such a network for fear of Chinese retaliation -- especially one that involves stronger military ties with Pakistan.

"China had turned down the Pakistan offer to have military stationed in the country," said Shen. "If India forces China to do that, of course we can put a navy at your doorstep."

Still, other analysts suggest the forthcoming exercise will put a measure of perspective on the convergence of India's 'Act East' initiative, the US 'Rebalance' strategy and Japan's insistence on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

"Faced with an aggressive China, Asia's major maritime powers -- Japan, Australia and India -- will work in a more synchronized manner in a quadrilateral grouping with the United States," Dr Mohan Malik, a professor of Asian security at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, wrote in a recent report for Global Risk Insights.

Admiral Harris welcomed the opportunity to ensure stronger collaboration between the US and India, saying: "Skepticism, suspicion and doubt on both sides have given way to cooperation, dialogue and trust."

The Malabar naval drills began in 1992 as an annual bilateral exercise between the US and India. China has made clear its opposition to Japan's addition as a permanent member in the exercises. 

"Relevant countries should not provoke confrontation and create tension in the region," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said in reaction to Japan's inclusion in the joint naval maneuvers this year.

TagsUS-China relations, China-India relations, China-Japan relations, Freedom of Navigation