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11/21/2024 10:09:12 pm

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The Next ‘Big One’ Super Quake Might Hit Southern California

Deadly

(Photo : USGS) The dreaded San Andreas Fault from the air

A portion of the San Andreas Fault seems primed to snap and could trigger the dreaded the next "Big One," super quake that might equal the 1857 quake in intensity, warned an expert seismologist.

Thomas Jordan, a seismologist and director of the Southern California Earthquake Center at The University of Southern California, was referring to the long-dormant southern portion of the San Andreas Fault that's been quiet for over a century. 

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At the National Earthquake Conference in Long Beach, Jordan warned this part could be where "The Big One" begins.

"The springs on the San Andreas system have been wound very, very tight. And the southern San Andreas fault, in particular, looks like it's locked, loaded and ready to go," said Jordan.

He noted that Southern California's last big earthquake to hit the southern San Andreas was in 1857. That was a magnitude 7.9 quake.

It's not only the southern San Andreas that is a cause for concern, said Jordan. Other sections of the San Andreas Fault are also long overdue for a huge quake.

The fault hasn't moved much southeast of the Cajon Pass since an earthquake in 1812 while the area of the dried up Salton Sea has been quiet since the 1680s. Jordan's findings back-up previous studies about the possibility Southern California will be the site of The Big One.

The San Andreas Fault has reached a sufficient stress level for an earthquake of magnitude greater than 7.0 to occur, said a 2006 study published in the journal Nature. This study said the quake risk is now concentrated on the southern section of the fault, or the region around Los Angeles. The Big One refers to an earthquake with a magnitude in excess of magnitude 7.0.

And what will be the toll inflicted by the next Big One? A U.S. Geological Survey report published in 2008 warned that a 7.8 earthquake at the southern San Andreas Fault would cause over1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damage.

An earthquake of this magnitude might cause shaking for some two minutes. Hardest hit by the shaking will be the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley.

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