Things are about to go from worse to worst by the end of 2016 with new data showing the Arctic sea ice in May melted down to its fourth-lowest level in 50 years.

This level is a record low and is creating conditions for what might be the smallest Arctic ice extent in history, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

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The unwanted warmer conditions at the beginning of the summer melting season will likely cause the Arctic sea ice to shrink below its all-time record lowest extent set in 2012. The extent to which the ice cap will melt this summer depends on summer weather patterns scientists can't predict more than 10 days in advance.

NSIDC data reveals that compared to normal conditions, the Arctic ice cap was missing a massive piece the size of Texas in May. That missing ice should have covered 4.63 million square miles of the Arctic Ocean, Hudson Bay and adjacent areas of the North Atlantic.

If it's any consolation, this missing chunk is 224,000 square miles smaller than the previous low record for the month set in 2004. May's record low comes in the wake of four previous monthly record lows set in January, February and April.

Arctic temperatures averaged some 3°C (5°F) above normal across the Arctic Ocean this spring. The unwelcome warmth saw daily sea ice extents average some 232,000 square miles smaller than during any May in the 38 years scientists have been gathering data. The record in May was the fourth-lowest sea ice extent in 50 years.

"We didn't just break the old May record, we're way below the previous one," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze.

"Will we end up with very low sea ice extent this September? I think pretty much absolutely."

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, an event triggered by climate change. The ongoing extreme El Niño also helped provide more unwanted heat.

NSIDC reported sea ice this year is melting at a pace two to four weeks faster than normal. Waves of warm air have been flooding into the Arctic from eastern Siberia and northern Europe.

As a consequence, Barrow, Alaska on the Beaufort Sea saw its earliest snowmelt in 78 years in May. Snow normally begins to retreat in late June or July, but the snow began to melt May 13 or 10 days sooner than the previous record set in 2002.

"The El Niño certainly had something to do with this," said Serreze. "It can have impacts on weather conditions very far away from the tropical Pacific."

"If we had a summer that is kind of cool and stormy, that will lead to less melt through the summer," said Serreze. "That could keep you from reaching a new record."

Tagsarctic sea ice, National Snow and Ice Data Center, NSIDC, Arctic, NSIDC Director Mark Serreze