CHINA TOPIX

11/21/2024 11:31:02 pm

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China Think-Tank Lowers 2016 Economic Forecast

China Economy

Chinese tourists stand along the promenade at the Bund in front of the financial district of Pudong on June 17, 2016 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

China's economic growth this year will be dragged down by the slower than expected global demand recovery, according to the China International Capital Corp (CICC).

In a research note, CICC, one of China's leading investment banking firms, lowered its forecast for the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 6.7 percent from 6.9 percent.

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The CICC's forecast for 2017 growth was lowered from the previous 6.8 percent to 6.7 percent.

The CICC said that while consumption demand will be largely stable and government investment will register stronger growth than that of the private sector, export demand could remain weak in the second half of this year due to global political uncertainties.

The firm, which engages in investment banking, securities, investment management, and other financial services primarily with institutional clients, maintained its consumer inflation forecast at 1.9% for this year.

"We maintain our forecast of no more interest rate cuts in 2016, and we reduce our reserve requirement ratio cut forecast from four more cuts to one more cut over the rest of the year," CICC said in a research note.

The note further added that China's fiscal policy is expected to loosen further after the country's Ministry of Finance stepped up efforts in fiscal loosening and lowered the tax burden of the corporate sector, according to the note.

The country's GDP grew 6.7 percent year on year in the first quarter of this year, down from 6.8 percent in the final quarter of 2015.

Meanwhile, nearly 1,000 business leaders of G20 members will be in China on September 3 - 4 to discuss promoting robust, sustainable and balanced growth of the global economy.

The September summit will have six issues on its agenda - financing growth, trade and investment, infrastructure, SME development, employment and anti-corruption.

Attendees to the summit produce policy recommendations for the annual meeting of the G20 leaders.

The draft report on policy advice for G20 leaders will be submitted to the G20 summit scheduled in Hangzhou on 4-5 September.

The G20 summit in China carries the theme "towards an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive world economy.

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