CHINA TOPIX

11/02/2024 01:29:54 pm

Make CT Your Homepage

China's Population to be Reduce by 33% by 2100

China Population

(Photo : China Photos/Getty Images) Swimmers pack the Dameisha Bathing Beach on Aug. 1, 2006 in Shenzhen of Guangdong Province, China.

China's population is facing a major demographic structural shift, as the nation adjusts to an ageing society and a shrinking labor force.

According to Zheng Zhenzhen, a researcher from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), the nation's population is expected to slip to 1 billion by 2100, China Business News reported.

Like Us on Facebook

Zheng explained that this figure, which represents a 33 percent drop in China's population, will be the same as the country's population way back in 1980.    

Her forecast supports a medium variant estimation carried out by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) that predicted China's population to fall to about 1 billion before the start of the new century.

However, data from  the National Bureau of Statistics show that the total fertility rate (TFR) in China stood within 1.04 to 1.26 percent levels from 2010 to 2013.

Similarly, a census conducted among one percent of the nation's total population in 2015 concluded that the TFR during that period was 1.25 across the country.

The results of a research conducted by Cai Fang, Vice President of CASS, revealed that the nation's massive workforce has contributed to about 27 percent to the economy over the past three decades.

However, the dividends resulting from the country's vast demographics are expected to decline in the coming years.

According to demographic researcher Yao Meixiong, China will experience a sizeable decrease in its youth population, a rapid rise in the proportion of elderly citizens, and an unbalanced gender distribution among people at the marriageable age.

These developments could all lead to a shortage in the labor supply, weaker consumption and innovation capabilities, and inadequate propulsion for the national economy, Yao noted.

Zhou Tianyong, the Deputy Dean of the International Strategic Research Institute of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, agrees with Yao's analysis.

"The rapid decline in population growth rates, the trend of baby bust, the contraction of the 22 to 44-year old labor force, and the rapid aging of the society, may result in a wave of downward movement in the national economy as well as a middle-income trap featuring a population trap, which is different from the situation in other countries," Zhou said.

To address these concerns, experts stressed the need for the Chinese government to implement far-sighted policies that are in line with China's declining population.  

Real Time Analytics