Hong Kong is keeping its eye on American politics, knowing that a victory for Republican Party presidential nominee Donald Trump could affect Asian economies with Hong Kong among the most susceptible, analysts said.

"If Trump is elected I expect he will make China his major target," Alastair Newton, director of Alavan Business Advisory, told South China Morning Post.

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Newton believes that Trump will hit China for its currency manipulation and levy hefty tariffs on Chinese import. "I expect China will retaliate," Newton explained. "Also, in this scenario, I expect China to take the US to the WTO."

Trump made it clear after he received the Republic party nomination on July 22 that he would do everything to stop "China's outrageous theft of intellectual property" as well as its dumping of illegal products and the country's "devastating currency manipulation."

A transcript of Trump's speech published by the Washington Post shows that Trump slammed China as the world's "greatest currently manipulators ever."

Should trade wars ever happen between the world's biggest economies, Hong Kong could end up as one of the casualties. 

Nomura analysts Young Sun Kwon and Minoru Nogimori noted that since Hong Kong is an "entrepôt" between both China and the US, a drop of trade volumes would mean bad news for local businesses, particularly in the packaging industry, as well as for the city's container ports and shipping. 

Mainland China, however, would be less affected compared to Hong Kong, although it is also vulnerable to any American economic policy.  The impact could include declining trade surplus and capital outflows resulting from the geopolitical situation in the region.

TagsHong Kong, donald trump