CHINA TOPIX

11/02/2024 09:37:37 am

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Majority of Base Metals Advance Amid Falling Chinese Equities

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(Photo : Getty Images) Traders make notes as they work inside the open outcry pit following a trading session at the London Metal Exchange (LME) in London, U.K., on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2015.

Almost every commodity in the base metals segment improved on last LME trading with the exception of tin, which lost 0.18 percent to $14,025 a tonne.

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Three-month unofficial copper price increased 1.49 percent to $5,589 a tonne while aluminium closed 0.89 percent at $1,693 a tonne. Three-month nickel soared 4.37 percent to $11,285 a tonne while lead and zinc both finished with better prices by 3.02 percent  to $1,806 a tonne and 1.88 percent to $2,004 a tonne, respectively.

This is considered good news for copper after hitting a new six-year low mark at $5,240 a tonne this week. According to traders, this recent collapse resembles that of January when the LME 3-month delivery price slumped to a dismal $5,339.50.

However, economists say that the segment remains vulnerable to various changes on the global market such as stronger US dollar value and cheaper energy prices.

Last Wednesday, the equity bubble in China-along with the ongoing debt crisis in Greece-has pulled down most base metal prices to a six-year low due to a broad-based selloff.

Speculators say that the European crisis must have a clear conclusion to finally get rid of investors' anxiety over buying non-dollar commodities.

"Fear of a Greek exit from the Eurozone and problems in other European countries-like Spain-have multiplied concerns on base metals' future demand. The concerns have aggravated with the steep fall in the equity market in China, the world's second largest consumer of copper and other base metals," Dilip Kumar Jha of Bussiness Standard reported.

China's economy has slumped to its slowest since 2005, forcing hundreds of Chinese companies to suspend trading for the time being.  

It is also the Chinese stocks' worst performance since December 2014.

"There is a panic but no matter how they [the authorities] jump in, this thing just doesn't stop falling," said Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse told the Financial Times.

In the hope of reversing the local market's tumultuous situation, Chinese officials have been unveiling several market-boosting measures almost every night over the past two weeks.

These measures have been effectual in terms of convincing firms in the construction sector to ramp up their production for the weeks to come.

Base metal investors rejoice since this could mean an imminent demand increase from the world's second largest economy.

The demand could be satisfied by large producers in the Philippines that are still capable of supplying high-grade ore until 2016. Even newcomers like Russia-based Amur Minerals Corporation (OTC:AMMCF), one of the most promising nickel producers in the world today for its sizeable nickel reserve, could help the supply segment, especially now that it has already obtained pre-production license from the Russian government.

"As China beefs up its efforts to rescue the market with even the public security ministry involved, market sentiment is recovering slightly. The rise today may help ease some selling pressure when companies resume their shares from trading, but whether it's sustainable will depend on what policies are coming next," said Qian Qimin, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co. in Shanghai.

Since a falling stock market does not automatically result to lower physical demand, steel producers are not expected to limit their imports even if the Chinese quandary continues until the last quarter of 2015.   

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