The ruling of the international Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the case filed by the Philippines regarding China's territorial claims in the South China Sea will test Beijing's commitment to the rule of law, according to a high-ranking Washington official.

The Philippines filed a case at the PCA's headquarters in the Netherlands three years ago in a bid to stop China's incursions and massive land reclamation activities in the disputed waters.

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The Philippine government on Wednesday said it is confident the international tribunal will issue a ruling on the case by May.   

"This is going to be hugely important," US state department assistant secretary Daniel Russel told the Financial Times in anticipation of the ruling. "I think it is the acid test of whether China will be seen as a nation that abides by international law or whether China is prepared to be seen as an outsider that flouts international law."

"Embraced and Upheld"

The Philippine government -- which had earlier refused bilateral talks with Beijing -- has said it would only consider negotiating with China if the tribunal rules in favor of Manila. 

China has nevertheless refused to participate in the proceedings, and has already said it will not recognize the international tribunal's ruling.

"Our position is clear," said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei in November. "We will not participate in -- or accept -- the arbitration."

Experts have said a ruling favorable to the Philippines could deal a significant blow against the legitimacy of the "nine-dash line" argument on which China premises its sweeping claims over the South China Sea. 

In January, Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop said that -- although China has said it would not be bound by the ruling -- the tribunal's decision "will be embraced and upheld by all other nations with claims or interests in the region."

Dr. Mohan Malik of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies meanwhile says a ruling in favor of Manila is likely lead to more US-led joint freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, further eroding Beijing's assertions over the territory.

Equally Binding

"China stands alone on the most contentious security issue in Asia today, the so-called nine-dash line in the SCS, and there is not a single country that publicly supports Beijing's irredentist claims," Malik says, using an acronym for the South China Sea in a report for Global Risk Insights (GRI).

The PCA's ruling could likewise convince other nation-claimants to file their own cases against Beijing, analysts say.

Reports from Manila indicate that the governments of Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan sent delegations to observe the proceedings of the case at the PCA in November. 

The Vietnamese government filed a position paper backing the Philippine's legal argument in 2014, and has said it is already considering filing its own case against China for its claims over the South China Sea.

Echoing Australia's position on the issue, an unnamed Washington official told the Financial Times that the tribunal's ruling would be seen by the rest of the world as equally binding on both the Philippine and China, regardless of the outcome.  

"It is in all of our interests to do everything in our power to encourage China to do what they say they do -- which is to adhere to international law," the official said.

TagsChina-Philippines, US-Philippiness, Permanent Court of Arbitration