CHINA TOPIX

11/02/2024 05:36:19 pm

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Asian Business Sentiment Stable for 1Q15

Chinese businessmen in Beijing

(Photo : Reuters) Three businessmen walk past a labourer resting on a bicycle along a street in Beijing

A Thomson Reuters/INSEAD survey shows that in the first quarter of the year, businesses remained relatively upbeat on their outlook over the next 6 months, dispelling any worries over the U.S. interest rate hike.

The Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Asian Business Sentiment Index (RACSI) pulled in a 71 for the this quarter versus the 72 logged in the October-December readings. Results higher than 50 show a generally optimistic point of view.

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This poll was conducted by Thomson Reuters in partnership with global business and management school INSEAD, done over the past two weeks in March. About 45 percent were positive, 51 neutral and 4 negative, of 111 respondents.

Generally, the survey shows that Asian companies see global economic uncertainty as the biggest risk to their businesses, followed by rising costs and other threats (i.e. regulatory changes and more competition).

Property-related firms came out as the most hopeful with a score of 88, one point higher than in the previous survey. Retail follows at a reading of 82 and drugs with 81.

On the other hand, financial institutions were the gloomiest, hung up on regulatory uncertainty and after effects of the global financial crisis back in 2011, logging a 55 rate. This is, however, higher than the 50 rating in the past two polls.

Country-wise, Indian companies were the most positive for the fourth quarter in a row, registering a 97 rating, seeing a slowdown in inflation and aggressive interest rate slashes to push forward the local economy.

Meanwhile, Singaporean businesses were the most pessimistic for the third straight quarter, on heightened fears that the first time the U.S. Fed raises interest rates in close to a decade may be soon, causing banks to immediately match the hike, driving down demand for property from higher mortgage costs.

"There is significant risk as people may have different interpretations of movements in interest rates in a way that can cause dramatic changes in financial markets," notes Antonio Fatas, a Singapore-based professor of Economics at INSEAD.

China was more upbeat like India, with readings inching up to 54 from 50, despite the People's Bank of China easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates to temper the slump in the economy.

Australia turned out to more pessimistic this year, though still broadly optimistic scoring 70 in the first quarter from 85 in the prior quarter, due to commodity prices moving down, moderating sentiment.

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