CHINA TOPIX

11/02/2024 09:40:27 am

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Future of Base Metals Still Depend on China Numbers, Experts Suggest

China stock market

(Photo : Reuters) An investor stands in front of an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China,

Whatever that is happening in China continues to affect investor perception, as weak economic data coming from the country still stifles trading at the bourse.

"Slowing Chinese growth and demand prospects continue to weigh on industrial commodities with prices eating into cost curves for some raising potential to production cutbacks should prices sustain downwards path," a trader said as reported by BaseMetals.com.

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On September 2 trading, for instance, base metals' prices slightly improved after short sellers covered their positions ahead of a national holiday in China, as China-based traders were expected to rest on the next day. However, the less than 1 percent increase in each of metal's prices were not enough to put the segment in a better position.

"A flood of data from China in coming weeks is likely to point to further weakness in the world's second-largest economy, reinforcing expectations that Beijing needs to roll out fresh stimulus measures and keeping global financial markets on edge," Reuters Africa reported

China remains the center of the metals market as it is the biggest consumer of ore in the world. The country has been depending on their infrastructure to expand their economy.

"A deteriorating economic growth outlook for emerging markets is likely to keep prices under downward pressure," said ANZ Research.

However, the recent market rout in July has discouraged steel companies to purchase metal from foreign producers.

On the other hand, it also put future ore producers in a position where they could assess the global market first before selling their products to giant consumers like China and Japan.

Global commerce newcomer Amur Minerals (London AIM: AMC), a Russia-based nickel producer, has decided to upgrade its existing mining technologies on the Kun-Manie Reserve. Several months ago, the company announced that it would prioritize building its own smelting facilities to offer better prices to steel producers in the future.

It also helps that Indonesia is still keeping the ore ban, as it helps to suppress the supply segment. Stopping the ban would create a surplus of supply in the global market, which, in turn, could create a major imbalance given that demand is currently low at the moment. It is not also a wise move for Indonesia to do so, as they know that the consumption environment is no longer the same as it was last year.

A demand recovery is not even in the radar of economists and international banks. China is showing little signs of recovery, and investors are still reluctant of putting their money on metals.

"There's no compelling evidence for a strong rebound in demand from the stainless steel sector and in fact, there are fears that demand is weakening in the very short term. We continue to foresee a structural deficit from 2016 onwards due to the Indonesian ore ban, but until global growth prospects improve, we believe there is no rush to buy nickel," Macquarie said in a report by Bloomberg.

But economists, analysts, and banks are still expecting a comeback for the metals industry. Anything can happen, and nobody forgets how an unexpected implementation of a law from Indonesia changed everything in the segment in 2014.

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